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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd