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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still